It’s that time of year again, St. Ignatius. The 3-4 weeks of absolute bliss and unparalleled insanity, also known as the NCAA Tournament, are upon us. And this year, we are presented with a tournament field that is difficult to get a good read on as a whole. Sure, the major sports media outlets have anointed a select few teams as favorites to cut down the nets (Florida, Louisville, and Michigan State namely), but who’s to say for sure that any one of those teams will take home the title? Louisville and Michigan State, while hot right now, both went through rough patches in their respective seasons, and one could make the argument that Florida wasn’t faced with much competition in the SEC this year aside from Kentucky, who is in a down year anyhow. At the end of the day, nobody can predict the various plot twists and shocking upsets that the NCAA Tournament provides year after year. The following is a listing of the first (technically second) round games in each region with my pick for each.
SOUTH REGION
1 Florida v. 16 Albany: 1 Florida
The top overall seed Gators will move on. Don’t pick the Great Danes. Just don’t.
8 Colorado v. 9 Pittsburgh: 9 Pittsburgh
Only one of Pitt’s nine losses has been by double digits (to Syracuse), and Colorado has gone 9-9 since losing leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie (great name) to a torn ACL. Go with the Panthers here.
5 VCU v. 12 Stephen F. Austin: 5 VCU
It is tempting to go with the Lumberjacks in a classic 5-12 upset, but I don’t think Stephen F. Austin will be able to handle VCU’s infamous havoc defense. SFA is 31-2 for a reason- they haven’t faced competition this stiff. The Rams move on to the Round of 32, but I think the Lumberjacks will put up a good fight.
4 UCLA v. 13 Tulsa: 4 UCLA
I see this game as the only possible 4-13 upset, but nevertheless, I don’t think it’s going to happen. UCLA took home the Pac-12 conference tournament this year and has two stellar ballplayers in 6’5″ guard Jordan Adams (17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and 6’9″ guard/forward Kyle Anderson (14.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg). There’s certainly a shot for Tulsa, but it’s a slim one against this versatile and streaking Bruins team.
6 Ohio State v. 11 Dayton: 6 Ohio State
This is a very tough call. Dayton poses a significant threat to the Buckeyes in this first round matchup with their depth and solid shooting, but the keys to this game are OSU coach Thad Matta’s consistent success in the first round (aside from the 2009 setback in an 8-9 matchup against Siena) and the Buckeyes’ stingy defense led by point guard Aaron Craft. It will be a very tight game, but I trust the Bucks to advance.
3 Syracuse v. 14 Western Michigan: 3 Syracuse
While the Orange have struggled mightily down the stretch, 7 foot center Shayne Whittington and the Broncos of Western Michigan just won’t have enough in their arsenal to get past the Cuse’s 2-3 zone. Syracuse marches on.
7 New Mexico v. 10 Stanford: 7 New Mexico
New Mexico is one of the most underrated teams in the field this year, and it’s pretty clear that they deserved better than a 7 seed. With their excellent frontcourt of center Alex Kirk (13.6 ppg) and forward Cameron Bairstow (20.3 ppg), I expect the Lobos to beat Stanford and make some noise in the tournament overall.
2 Kansas v. 15 Eastern Kentucky: 2 Kansas
Even without star center Joel Embiid, don’t bet against the Jayhawks in the Round of 64. Kansas has too much firepower for the Colonels to handle, simple as that.
EAST REGION
1 Virginia v. 16 Coastal Carolina: 1 Virginia
As great of a nickname as the Chanticleers is, Virginia wins. Coastal won’t be able to hang with one of the best defenses in the country.
8 Memphis v. 9 George Washington: 8 Memphis
This is one of the toughest games to call in this year’s tournament. These are two very evenly matched teams, but I think at the end of the day, Memphis’ experience and athleticism will be enough to put them over the top against the Colonials.
5 Cincinnati v. 12 Harvard: 12 Harvard
Cincinnati plays lockdown D and has a great scorer in Sean Kilpatrick, but the Bearcats struggle to put up points if Kilpatrick has an off night. Meanwhile, this is a Harvard team that has only gotten better since knocking off 3 seed New Mexico as a 14 seed in last year’s tournament. They have the experience and they have an excellent coach in Tommy Amaker; after much thought and debate over this pick, I say the Crimson get it done.
4 Michigan State v. 13 Delaware: 4 Michigan State
While the Blue Hens had the potential to give a higher-seeded team some problems in the first round, they got the misfortune of drawing Sparty for their first round matchup. Michigan State got healthy and started putting it together at exactly the right time, and will continue their success from the Big Ten tournament in the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans keep dancing.
6 North Carolina v. 11 Providence: 6 North Carolina
This is a pretty tough matchup to call as well. Providence features one of the best scorers in the country in senior guard Bryce Cotton (21.4 ppg), and the Friars showed incredible toughness in their Big East tournament championship. However, I like the Tar Heels here, led by point guard Marcus Paige and forward James Michael McAdoo. I think the Heels will wear down Providence (who primarily plays a six-man rotation) down the stretch. Go with UNC.
7 Connecticut v. 10 St. Joe’s: 10 St. Joe’s
This is another close call, but I have to go with the red-hot Hawks here. While UConn overall has better guard play, St. Joe’s senior guard Langston Galloway is one of the best 3-point marksmen in the country (a huge asset in the tourney) and forward Halil Kanacevic crashes the boards extremely well, which could cause problems for the Huskies’ guard-centric team. The Hawks of St. Joseph move on.
2 Villanova v. 15 Milwaukee: 2 Villanova
Milwaukee caught fire in the Horizon League tournament and has a baller in guard Jordan Aaron, but 2-seed Nova will be too much for the Panthers. The Wildcats move on.
WEST REGION
1 Arizona v. 16 Weber State: 1 Arizona
16-seeds are 0-116 against 1-seeds. That streak won’t end here. Arizona.
8 Gonzaga v. 9 Oklahoma State: 9 Oklahoma State
The Bulldogs have plenty of NCAA experience under coach Mark Few, but are banged-up going into this one. Plus, Oklahoma State has three great scorers in Marcus Smart (one of the top players in the country), Markel Brown, and Le’Bryan Nash, and the Cowboys are better than their 9-seed would indicate. Take Okie State here.
5 Oklahoma v. 12 North Dakota State: 12 North Dakota State
Oklahoma has a high-powered offense and the advantage of having played in what was a very good Big 12 conference this year, but the Sooners struggle defensively. On the other hand, NDSU’s Tyler Braun is an excellent scorer (18.2 ppg, 44% from 3) and the Bison know how to handle the big boys. I see North Dakota State pulling the upset here.
4 San Diego State v. 13 New Mexico State: 4 San Diego State
SDSU has one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing 56.6 ppg to opponents, and they beat Kansas on the road earlier this season. While New Mexico State’s huge frontcourt (featuring 7’5″ Sim Bhullar) may pose some issues for the Aztecs, I see San Diego State marching on.
6 Baylor v. 11 Nebraska: 6 Baylor
Nebraska has made huge strides this year after being irrelevant for a while in college basketball, and has played good basketball recently as well. The Huskers are led by athletic wingman Terran Petteway, who leads the team with 18.1 ppg. However, the Baylor Bears are 10-2 in their last 12 games and have really come together as a team just in time for the tournament. With forward Cory Jefferson (13.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and center Isaiah Austin (11 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.3 bpg) leading the way, I expect the Bears to pound the boards and edge Nebraska in this one.
3 Creighton v. 14 UL-Lafayette: 3 Creighton
The Ragin’ Cajuns average a scorching 81.4 ppg as a team, but their suspect defense (75.1 opponent ppg) will not serve them well against Creighton superstar Doug McDermott (26.9 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and the high-flying Bluejays. Dougie and Creighton advance.
7 Oregon v. 10 BYU: 7 Oregon
Oregon has won 8 of 9 going into the tournament, and has a team perhaps more talented than their record and seed may show. BYU, on the other hand, does have stud guard Tyler Haws (23.4 ppg), but the Cougars just lost second leading scorer Kyle Collinsworth to a torn ACL in the West Coast Conference tourney. Seeing that the streaking Ducks already took down BYU earlier in the season when BYU was at full strength, I don’t see why their success wouldn’t continue.
2 Wisconsin v. 15 American: 2 Wisconsin
The Eagles have held opponents to 58.6 ppg this year, but they also turn the ball over on 22% of their possessions. That’s really, really bad. Wisconsin wins.
MIDWEST REGION
1 Wichita State v. 16 Cal Poly: 1 Wichita State
34-0. 14-19. Don’t pick Cal Poly. C’mon. You’re better than that.
8 Kentucky v. 9 Kansas State: 8 Kentucky
In what looks to be a physical close matchup, I see Kentucky coming out on top. K-State has struggled as of late, especially shooting-wise, and while Kentucky isn’t having a typical Kentucky season, this team is still incredibly talented and has hung with some of the best in the country. Kentucky moves on.
5 St. Louis v. 12 NC State: 12 NC State
SLU plays a grind-it-out, slow pace and locks down opposing teams on defense, but the Bilikens have been struggling heading into the tournament- never a good sign. On the other hand, NC State, led by the dynamic TJ Warren (24.8 ppg), have been playing some of their best basketball yet. I like NC State to pull off another 5-12 upset over SLU.
4 Louisville v. 13 Manhattan: 4 Louisville
This is another case of an unfortunate pairing. Manhattan might’ve had a chance at an upset in a different matchup, but against red-hot title contender Louisville, I just don’t see it happening. Louisville advances.
6 UMass v. 11 Iowa/Tennessee: 11 Iowa
While the winner of the Iowa-Tennessee play-in game hasn’t been decided yet, I am willing to pick the winner of that game over the Minutemen regardless of which team wins it. UMass is another A-10 squad that faded a bit down the stretch. Additionally, Tennessee is playing the best basketball they’ve played all year right now, and despite Iowa’s own recent struggles, the Hawkeyes are a much better team than how they’ve played recently. This team is deep and talented, and I think they will be very motivated to prove themselves this year.
3 Duke v. 14 Mercer: 3 Duke
Mercer is another example in this year’s tournament of a team that you would’ve been wise to watch out for had they not ended up where they were. Against Coach K and the Blue Devils, I don’t see much upset potential. Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, and the rest are too good. Duke moves on.
7 Texas v. 10 Arizona State: 7 Texas
This is a difficult game to call because, frankly, both teams don’t really stand out. Both teams have gone 6-6 in their past 12 games, which is obviously indicative of late-season struggles. At any rate, Arizona State’s depth is a slight concern, and Texas has been better battle-tested by a tougher conference. Texas wins a close one.
2 Michigan v. 15 Wofford: 2 Michigan
And we have finally arrived at the last first round matchup. Michigan will win. There. I said it. Of course, I hope they somehow, against all the odds lose by 40 and completely embarrass themselves, but oh well.
So there you have it. Are these picks a 100% guarantee? Absolutely not. But based on what I have read and the various experts I have consulted in my bracket efforts, this is what I have come up with. I will try to get my full bracket up tomorrow morning for all to see. Happy Madness!!!!
