Ohio State, Wichita State, Marquette, and Syracuse make up half of the Elite Eight, while Friday night brings the remaining Sweet 16 games. The Midwest and South Regions play their regional semifinals, as juggernauts are featured and two of the bracketbusters.
Midwest Regional Semifinal: #1-Seed Louisville vs. #12-Seed Oregon at 7:15 pm.
The Oregon Ducks (28-8) are no typical #12-seed. They have reached the regional semifinals for the first time since 2007. They will face offensive challenges in trying to fight past the gritty, tough, pressuring Louisville Cardinals. Rick Pitino’s squad is the Big East Tournament champion and enters at 31-5. They forced 47 turnover and won their first two tournament games by an average of 28.5 points. Oregon has had 36 turnovers in their first two tournament games, so the Ducks better be ready to change their efficiency. Oregon’s leading scorer is 6’5 freshman guard Damyean Dotson. He’s averaged 20 points per game thus far in tournament play. The difference maker is Dominic Artis, who is a freshman and has returned from injury. On the other side, Russ Smith and Gorgui Dieng lead the Cards. Smith has averaged 25 points per game thus far in the Big Dance, and the junior guard will bring pressure to Oregon’s Artis. Oregon does have a key rebounder in Arsalan Kazemi, but it will take more than just rebounds. The key to this game is how Oregon handles Louisville’s pressure. The Cards will make their run, but I feel it is very important that Oregon plays to their speed, but plays within themselves. I like Louisville to command the Ducks, because I just don’t see Oregon having an answer for the pressure the Cards fly in with day in and day out.
South Regional Semifinal: #1-Seed Kansas vs. #4-Seed Michigan at 7:37 pm
It’s been 19 years since the Michigan Wolverines were in the Sweet 16. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. lead the way for John Beilein’s team. Freshman Mitch McGary has stepped up in big ways, as he scored 21 points and racked down 14 rebounds in the Round of 32 win over Virginia Commonwealth. Trey Burke is a national player of the year candidate and looks to display his quickness against the Jayhawks. When looking at Kansas, Bill Self’s team is first in field goal percentage defense, as they hold teams to a 35.7 percentage average. Senior center Jeff Withey has averaged 16.5 points per game during the tournament. Leading scorer Ben McLemore has been in a bit of a slump, as he went 0/9 against North Carolina last weekend. Both teams average 75 points per game, and both teams allow just a little over 60 points per game. This has “great game” written all over it. I like Jeff Withey and Kansas to prevail. If the Jayhawks can figure out a way to contain Mitch McGary, then the battle in the post is to the Jayhawks’ advantage. Michigan is the more explosive team, but Kansas’ consistency defensively gets them into the Elite 8 in my opinion.
Midwest Regional Semifinal: #2-Seed Duke vs. #3-Seed Michigan State at 9:45 pm
Two coaching legends face off when the Spartans and Blue Devils meet later tonight. Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski will lead their respective teams out. Duke forward Ryan Kelly only scored nine points in Duke’s first two tourney games, but Duke has had Seth Curry (17.3 ppg) going for them and big man Mason Plumlee (17.2 ppg) has been contributing as well. With Kelly going, the Blue Devils can stretch Michigan out offensively by moving it inside-out. In the Associated Press, Tom Izzo said, “I know what we can do to beat them, but we will be spread out defensively by them. We must know our assignments.” Senior forward Derrick Nix has averaged 18 points in the first two tournament games. Duke is 6-1 all-time against Tom Izzo, which shows their true success. These are two titans, there’s no doubt. I like Duke fighting off Sparty, but Ryan Kelly is huge in this game. If Duke can hit from the perimeter, which I think they will, I like the Blue Devils. Michigan State will be trying to lock up Duke defensively, but it will be no easy task due to the way the Blue Devils spread defenses out. I like Coach K though.
South Regional Semifinal: #3-Seed Florida vs. #15-Seed Florida Gulf Coast at 9:57 pm
Will Cinderella’s carriage keep on riding? It’s an intra-state battle between the Gators and Eagles at Dallas Cowboys Stadium Friday night. Florida Gulf Coast (26-10) was just another school last week, but they aren’t any more. The other teams in Miami and Florida have been the teams in the back seat of Cinderella. On November 13, FGCU toppled the Hurricanes of Miami, but they have not met Florida. Bill Donovan’s team is the SEC regular season champion and is made up of four different scorers that average between 10.3 and 12.8 points per game. Erik Murphy, Patric Young, Kenny Boynton, and Mike Rosario spread the floor well and have powered the Gators’ offense. For the Eagles, senior guard Sherwood Brown (15.6 ppg) is the quickster who leads the transition effort. Chase Fieler and Brett Comer display great length and have produced major dunks in the Big Dance. The slipper is still on the Eagles, but the key to this game is how Florida tries to contain the Eagles in transition. I think it’s key that FGCU understands that they cannot win the game in five minutes. It takes 40, and Billy Donovan wants his Gators to run. I see this being a good game, but I see the Gators wearing down the Eagles. The lights may just get a little too bright, and that’s why I take Florida, who is just a little more balanced. I certainly give FGCU a hot though.
The Midwest games are at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, and the South games are at Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, so the venues are excellent. It should be an electric Friday night!
Saturday’s action:
East Regional Final: #3-Seed Marquette vs. #4-Seed Syracuse at 4:30 pm
West Regional Final: #2-Seed Ohio State vs. #9-Seed Wichita State at 7:05 pm at the Staples Center
