With no clear #1, there is plenty of uncertainty in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
The final weekend of the regular season is underway for many teams, while the Big South, Horizon League, Atlantic Sun, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, West Coast, Missouri Valley, Southern, Sun Belt, America East, Colonial Athletic Association, Metro Atlantic Athletic, and Summit League all hold their respective conference tournaments. By the conclusion of the weekend, fourteen schools will have received automatic bids to the Big Dance. 31 teams will receive automatic bids, while the other 37 non-conference tournament champs will receive at-large berths. Although those 31 automatic bids are locked, the rest of the field is not going to be easy for the tournament committee to seed whatsoever. Yes, it’s never easy, but the year in college basketball has been a head-scratcher.
This weekend, there are some big-time contests before the rest of the conferences begin their tournaments next week. Of course, the Tobacco Road showdown takes place at 9 pm on Saturday, when 26-4 #3 Duke takes on a team looking to make a statement, 22-8 North Carolina. The Blue Devils, who just got back their big man, Ryan Kelly, are 17-0 with him in the line-up on the season. The Tar Heels have won six in a row and are playing strong and effective basketball. UNC is 14th in points per game averaging 77.8, 10th in rebounds per game, and 2nd in assists per game. Another big game on tap is #17 Syracuse heading to #5 Georgetown. The Orange have lost three straight games against ranked opponents. It’s a pivotal game for Georgetown, as they are in first place in a three-way tie in the Big East Conference. #8 Louisville, who plays host to rising #24 Notre Dame, is also tied. Marquette completes the tie at the top, as they are on the road at St. John’s on Saturday. The Big East has its own madness on Saturday, that’s for sure.
In the Big Ten, Indiana can win the outright conference title with a win over #7 Michigan on Sunday (4 pm), but that won’t come easy in Ann Arbor. Michigan, #10 Michigan State, and #14 Ohio State are all win second. With an Indiana loss, all three of those teams can potentially jump in to tie that race at the top. The Hoosiers are potentially a #1-seed in the tournament, but they come off a 67-58 fall to Ohio State. Led by Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo, Indiana plays tough defensively and Coach Tom Crean has implemented his inside-out offense.
Right now, according to the official bracketologist Joe Lunardi (ESPN), eight teams would be coming out of the Big East and seven would be receiving bids from the Big Ten. Outside of those two conferences, the rest of the conferences are very intriguing to watch. The SEC is projected to have only three teams in, as it has been a down year in hoops. #11 Florida is the only ranked team in the conference, but right now the only team that is said to sneak in is Tennessee. In the “last four in” from Lunardi are Temple, Virginia, Boise State, and the Volunteers. The first four teams that are on the outside looking in are Ole Miss, Alabama, Southern Miss, and Baylor. I’ll give you the break down of those teams in a second.
The Mountain West, Pac-12, Big 12, Atlantic 10, and ACC are all predicted to have five teams potentially in the tournament. Out of the Mountain West, the #12 New Mexico Lobos are the premier team in the conference, but I love who’s right behind them in UNLV. The Rebels are led by freshman Anthony Bennett as they have won five straight games. This team is peaking at the right moment.
In the Pac-12, the two main locks are #18 Arizona and #23 UCLA, but there really isn’t a consistent team in the conference. It’s a merry-go-round conference, with a new team on the rise every week. My favorite pick to potentially make a run in the tournament is Oregon. They have two freshman starters that not many coaches have been prepared for, as Coach Dana Altman has done a really good job there. The Ducks have beaten Arizona, UCLA, and UNLV. They run the floor well, and know how to spread teams out defensively.
In the Big 12, #4 Kansas is atop the conference with #9 Kansas State. I see Kansas making a DEEP run in the Big Dance. They not only have the big who can challenge defenses in Jeff Withey, but the are led by Ben McLemore (16. 5 ppg). This team plays really well defensively under Bill Self, and they have won seven straight.
The Atlantic Ten holds two teams atop their leaderboard (Virginia Commonwealth and Saint Louis, both at 12-3 in the conference), and this is a conference that could very easily produce teams which can make a deep run in the dance. VCU pummeled Butler last Saturday, 84-52, but Brad Stevens’ team is 23-7 and had the tournament magic on their side. I like VCU, Saint Louis, and Butler to all have potential to wreck havoc on the bracket. In the Atlantic Coast Conference, there are four locks in Duke, Miami, North Carolina, and NC State in my opinion. Virginia and Maryland still have work to do, and they meet each other on Sunday ironically in a critical contest. Virginia is the better team in my opinion, as right now they are in the “last four in” category. Maryland is outside the field right now, but Sunday could be their shot to still make a case. Against the RPI top 150, Maryland is 4-10, which really brings down their case. The ACC has four lethal teams in Duke, Miami, UNC, and NC State, but do not get too high on #6 Miami. This is a team that looks extremely athletic, and has played very well. Their momentum is not on the up & up right now, with two straight losses to Duke and Georgia Tech. They need to bounce back hosting Clemson on Saturday afternoon. I see this team being one that people are too confident on. They are 0-2 in neutral sights, and they have had blemishes. Wake Forest has an RPI worse than 150, and the ‘Canes dropped one to them on February 23.
Many of you want to know about the Akron Zips. They had won 19 in a row and had a strong case for a possible at-large bid, but a really rough loss to Buffalo on March 2nd tells me that the Zips are going to have to win their conference. Who stands in front of them? A team that I truly like in the Ohio Bobcats. Led by DJ Cooper, the Bobcats know how to challenge teams offensively, as they lead all of college basketball with 18.3 assists per game. They are 13-2 in their conference, but after making a run to the Sweet Sixteen last year, I really like them a lot. They share the ball and Cooper is just phenomenal to watch. MAC Tournament at Quicken Loans Arena next week will be exciting to watch, with full coverage on SportsTime Ohio.
BUBBLE TEAMS
In my “last four in,” I think that Joe Lunardi is right on when he says that it has to be Temple, Virginia, Boise St., and Tennessee.
TEMPLE: They are 22-8 and could very likely lock up an at-large bid with a win over VCU on Sunday at home, but that won’t come easy at all. The Owls have won six games in a row. You don’t want to cross this team’s path. Senior guard Khalif Wyatt leads the way with 19.5 points per game.
VIRGINIA: The Cavaliers really are a talented and athletic team, but they’ve made some be convinced otherwise. Yes, they have good wins over #19 NC State and a #3 Duke, but have lost games to Old Dominion, Boston College, and Florida State.
BOISE STATE: The Broncos are 20-9 on the season and have beaten Creighton, Colorado State, LSU. They gave Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans everything they could handle in a 74-70 loss. Their RPI is 43, they are 7-7 against the RPI top 100. They have a strength of schedule of 79, which I believe is good enough to get them in the dance.
TENNESSEE: The Volunteers are 18-11, and have wins over Florida, Kentucky (a team that is just outside of the field), Alabama, and Texas A&M. This team has gotten better as the season has gone on, and they deserve a bid, being winners of seven of their last eight.
Check me out on twitter @JohnFanta13. I have college hoops updates all weekend. Submit questions to me there and in my inbox at [email protected]. I will have a new blog post at the end of the weekend to tell you what we should look for in Championship Week. There are no guarantees in this tournament. There are lots of analysts out there, but who knows what will happen.
March is here, the time for college hoops to take center stage is now!
